WALLENSTEIN, N., CHESTER, D.K. & DUNCAN, A.M. (2005) - Methodological implications of volcanic hazard evaluation and risk assessment:  Fogo Volcano, São Miguel, Azores. Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie, V. 140, p. 129-149.

​A more comprehensive and socially-aware approach to risk assessment was developed during the latter stages of the United Nations International Decade for National Disaster Reduction (IDNDR - 1990-2000) and is now explicit within the current framework defined by the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR). This methodology includes studies of environmental impacts and investigations into demographic, social, economic and cultural aspects of human vulnerability. The present study represents the application of this approach to Fogo Volcano on São Miguel Island in the Azores, in order to highlight the methodological issues involved in putting these procedures into practice. Fogo is the largest of three active central volcanoes on the island, and dominates its middle region. It has a complex morphology, with a summit caldera formed as a result of numerous collapse and explosive events. The most recent event was a sub-plinian eruption that occurred in 1563. Historic records and recent instrumental data also testify to a history of intense seismic activity, which includes paroxysmal events such as the 1522 earthquake - which killed around 5,000 people, and recurrent low to moderate magnitude seismic swarms that have dominated the last few decades. Volcanic and seismic histories of the volcano have allowed hazard scenarios of geophysical events to be developed. These are supplemented by studies of slope instability and weather conditions, which also present a significant threat to people, housing and livelihood on Fogo volcano. Conflation of these investigations allows us to suggest more comprehensive risk scenarios than has usually been the case for active volcanoes. To understand and evaluate the impact of these scenarios on the people of São Miguel, settlement, demographic and socio-economic studies have been carried out. In particular, we have undertaken a survey of the roads of the area and their effectiveness as evacuation routes. Special attention has been paid to the stability of bridges and slopes. Finally human vulnerability is assessed in terms of settlement pattern, population demographic characteristics and social and economic factors.​